Find brand terms eligible for a pause test
Identify exact matched queries where organic position and observed CTR both clear the tool's transparent test-candidate thresholds.
Brand Bid Decider
Free, no signup. Compare Ads performance with organic brand visibility. The output is a modeled test recommendation, not a claim of incrementality.
Paste Ads search terms first, then GSC Queries. Separate data sets with a line containing ---. Files never leave your browser.
| Term | Verdict | Organic position | Organic / expected CTR | Cost | Conversions |
|---|
Site passport Local context for this saved site
Local data
Saved targets, named lists, and recent check summaries remain only in this browser.
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Runs entirely in your browser — nothing you paste is uploaded or stored. Anonymous run-level outcome counters may be used for aggregate research; URLs, domains, IPs, and identifiers are never included, and no statistic is released below 100 runs.
How to use it
- Paste an Ads search-terms table containing Search term, Cost, and Conversions.
- Add
---, then paste an aligned GSC Queries table. - Select Analyze and review the verdict, organic CTR, expected CTR, cost, and conversions for every Ads term.
- Use eligible rows to design a geo or time holdout. Do not pause campaigns from the model alone.
Example scenario Illustrative data
These fictional metrics show how a candidate is expressed; they do not claim an incremental savings result.
Termacme analytics
Verdicttest-pausingOrganic evidencePosition 1.2 · CTR 42%Paid evidence$320 cost · 18 conversions
Reason: organic is effectively first and clears the modeled CTR, so test a controlled pause for cannibalization.
What the simulation shows
Test-pausing means the organic rank and CTR thresholds were met. Run-holdout means the evidence is ambiguous. The engine also defines defend-brand for supplied competitor overlap, but this page does not collect competitor terms and therefore cannot return it. Organic and expected CTR are decimals; cost and conversions are retained from the Ads row.
How it works
Ads and GSC rows are joined by exact normalized query text. The tool calculates organic clicks divided by impressions and compares that with the shared position-based CTR estimate. A row qualifies for a pause test only at position 1.5 or better and at or above expected CTR. The holdout illustration uses the imported click and conversion totals, assumes the export covers 30 days, and discloses that period assumption so you can adjust it to the actual range.
Features
- Conservative verdicts with the reason and underlying metrics.
- Exact normalized query join with no opaque semantic matching.
- Browser-only processing and required-column checks.
Limitations
- No competitor-presence, profit, impression-share, device, or geo inputs in the current UI.
- The holdout is a planning illustration, not account-specific power analysis; correct its disclosed 30-day assumption when your export covers a different period.
- Average position and modeled CTR can hide SERP-layout and query-mix differences.
- A clean test still needs conversion lag, seasonality, brand safety, and sample-ratio checks.
Frequently asked questions
When does the tool suggest testing a brand-ad pause?
It suggests a controlled pause when the exact normalized GSC queryA free Google service that reports how a site performs in Google Search and surfaces problems with how Google crawls, indexes, and serves it. It's first-party data straight from Google — but you don't need it to appear in results. averages position 1.5 or better and its organic CTR meets or exceeds the modeled CTR for that position.
Does the Brand Bid Decider prove paid search cannibalization?
No. It identifies test candidates. Only a well-designed holdout can estimate how many paid clicks or conversions are incremental.
Why do most rows say run a holdout?
The result stays cautious when organic rank or CTR does not clear both thresholds, or when an Ads term has no exact normalized GSC match.
Does the tool detect competitor ads?
Not in the current page workflow. The engine supports a competitor-presence input, but this UI does not collect it, so it cannot produce a defend-brand verdict from these two exports alone.
Should Ads and GSC exports use the same date range?
Yes. Align dates, geography, device, and search scope as closely as possible before comparing performance.
Feature requests for Brand Bid Decider
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Where this tool helps
Common use cases
Keep ambiguous terms under controlled coverage
Route weak organic evidence and unmatched Ads terms to a geo or time holdout instead of assuming paid clicks are cannibalized.
Prioritize tests using paid evidence
Carry each term's imported cost and conversions beside the organic evidence so the team can choose where a controlled experiment is worth the effort.
Standardize paid and organic review
Join aligned Ads search-term and GSC query exports with exact normalized text, avoiding opaque semantic matches and manual spreadsheet drift.
Hand candidates into an experiment plan
Export verdicts, reasons, thresholds, cost, and conversions, then add actual date range, geography, conversion lag, and guardrails outside the tool.
Watch the full workflow
Brand Bid Decider walkthrough
Read the transcript
Brand Bid Decider
This beginner walkthrough explains the paid-search and organic-search terms, shows the complete CSV workflow with fictional data, interprets every recommendation, demonstrates export, and draws a clear line between a test candidate and proof that an ad is incremental.
Step 1
The Brand Bid Decider compares Google Ads brand search terms with organic Google Search Console queries. Its job is to identify terms that may be worth testing, while keeping the underlying position, click-through rate, cost, and conversions visible. It does not prove that an ad stole an organic click, and it does not tell you to pause a campaign automatically.
Step 2
A brand term contains your own company or product name. Paid clicks come from ads; organic clicks come from unpaid search results. Organic C-T-R means organic clicks divided by impressions. Expected C-T-R is the tool’s position-based reference value. Incrementality means outcomes caused by the ad that would not have happened without it. A holdout is a controlled comparison where one matched group keeps ads and another reduces or pauses them.
Step 3
Use this tool to find brand terms eligible for a pause test, keep uncertain terms under controlled coverage, prioritize experiments using paid cost and conversions, standardize a paid-and-organic review, or export a handoff for the campaign team. These are planning use cases. None of them turns overlap alone into a savings claim.
Step 4
Paste the Ads search-terms table first. Then add a line containing three hyphens and paste the Search Console Queries table. The Ads side needs Search term, Cost, and Conversions. The organic side needs Query, Clicks, Impressions, and Position. You can also choose local CSV files. Processing happens in the browser, so the pasted rows are not uploaded by this tool.
Step 5
This fictional Acme example contains three Ads terms. The first two have organic rows with the same normalized text. The login term does not; the unrelated support row will not be substituted for it. The figures are teaching data, not benchmarks. For a real analysis, export both sources for the same dates and align country, device, search type, and brand-term scope.
Step 6
Select Analyze. The browser validates both tables, removes aggregate Ads rows, normalizes the query text, and joins only exact normalized matches. It calculates organic click-through rate from clicks divided by impressions, compares that result with the position-based expectation, and creates one recommendation for every Ads term.
Step 7
Acme Analytics is labeled Test Pausing. Its organic position is one point two, which clears the one point five cutoff. Its observed organic C-T-R is forty-two percent, above the modeled twenty-four percent expectation. The card also preserves three hundred twenty in source-currency cost and eighteen conversions. This means design a controlled pause test—not pause the term now.
Step 8
The pricing term is labeled Run Holdout. Its observed organic C-T-R is fifteen percent, above the ten point eight percent reference, but position is two point eight and therefore misses the position cutoff. Both conditions must pass. Run Holdout is not a failed term; it means this model cannot support the narrower pause-test recommendation.
Step 9
The login Ads term also becomes Run Holdout because no organic query has the same normalized text. Position is correctly shown as not observed. The tool does not use semantic similarity and does not borrow the support row. That strict rule makes missing evidence obvious instead of hiding it behind a close-enough match.
Step 10
The results table puts the decision trail in one place: term, verdict, organic position, observed and expected C-T-R, paid cost, and conversions. Review the reason and all the inputs together. High spend can help prioritize a test, but cost is not estimated waste, and imported conversions are not necessarily incremental conversions.
Step 11
The current decision rule is deliberately transparent: position must be one point five or better, and observed organic C-T-R must meet or exceed the modeled expectation. Otherwise the term stays Run Holdout. The underlying engine includes a Defend Brand path, but this page has no competitor-presence input, so that verdict cannot be produced from this interface.
Step 12
Select Download results C-S-V to save brand-bid-decisions dot C-S-V. The file includes each term’s verdict, reason, position, observed and expected C-T-R, cost, and conversions. Add the actual reporting period, market, device, campaign owner, test cells, guardrails, and eventual measured outcome before using it as an experiment handoff.
Step 13
For a real holdout, choose matched geographies, audiences, or time periods; keep the comparison stable; and measure total conversions across paid and organic channels. Account for conversion lag and seasonality, watch brand safety and competitor pressure, and check that traffic splits remain balanced. Predefine success and stopping rules before changing coverage.
Step 14
The holdout illustration assumes the imported clicks cover thirty days because the export does not reliably contain its period; replace that assumption with the real range. This is not account-specific power analysis. The current inputs omit competitor presence, profit, impression share, device, and geography. Average position and modeled C-T-R are planning signals, not experimental lift or guaranteed savings.
Use the model to choose tests—not outcomes
Confirm the true export period and align date, geography, device, and search scope. Then design a matched geo, audience, or time holdout with conversion-lag, seasonality, brand-safety, and sample-ratio checks. Change paid coverage only when the experiment measures the total outcome you care about.
Common issues & how to fix them
- Information Paid brand traffic overlaps a strong organic result Fix: Run a geo or audience holdout that pauses brand ads only where organic position and CTR are already strong, then compare total incremental conversions—not channel-reported clicks.
- Warning Paid brand incrementality is unproven Fix: Keep bids stable while running a powered holdout with conversion lag and seasonality controls; change spend only after measuring total incremental outcomes.
- Warning Competitor pressure argues against pausing bids Fix: Keep defensive coverage on contested brand queries and test narrower match, geography, device, or schedule reductions instead of a full pause.
- Warning Organic coverage is too weak to reduce bids Fix: Improve the brand result’s ranking, snippet, sitelinks, and landing-page coverage before testing lower paid-brand exposure.